Delightfully cynical half-truths about organizations

Marton Trencseni - Sat 12 February 2022 • Tagged with peter-principle, gervais-principle, dunning-kruger, dilbert

Five delightfully cynical half-truths about organizations: the Peter principle, the Dilbert principle, the Gervais principle, Negative selection and the Dunning-Kruger effect.

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Probabilistic spin glass - Conclusion

Marton Trencseni - Mon 31 January 2022 • Tagged with entropy, physics, spin, glass

I summarize the 5 previous posts on probabilistic spin glasses.

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Optimal coverage for Wordle with Monte Carlo methods - Part III

Marton Trencseni - Sat 22 January 2022 • Tagged with wordle, monte-carlo

I present a simple Monte Carlo solution which finds a 25-letter-unique Worlde wordlist in about 10 minutes.

Wordle

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Optimal coverage for Wordle with Monte Carlo methods - Part II

Marton Trencseni - Fri 21 January 2022 • Tagged with wordle, monte-carlo

I improve on the previous brute-force Monte Carlo approach for attacking the Wordle coverage problem.

Wordle

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Optimal coverage for Wordle with Monte Carlo methods - Part I

Marton Trencseni - Wed 19 January 2022 • Tagged with wordle, monte-carlo

I show a simple brute-force Monte Carlo approach for attacking the Wordle coverage problem.

Wordle

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Probabilistic spin glass - Part V

Marton Trencseni - Thu 06 January 2022 • Tagged with entropy, physics, spin, glass

I use Monte Carlo simulations to explore the dynamic behaviour of probabilistic spin glasses, specifically how saturation scales with $p$ and $N$.

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Probabilistic spin glass - Part IV

Marton Trencseni - Fri 31 December 2021 • Tagged with entropy, physics, spin, glass

This is a continuation of the previous articles on probabilistic spin glasses. I run simulations to understand the scaling behaviour for large spin glasses.

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Probabilistic spin glass - Part III

Marton Trencseni - Sat 25 December 2021 • Tagged with entropy, physics, spin, glass

I run simulations to understand the dynamic probabilistic evolution of these toy models.

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Probabilistic spin glass - Part II

Marton Trencseni - Sat 18 December 2021 • Tagged with entropy, physics, spin, glass

This is a continuation of the previous article on probabilistic spin glasses, with improvements to the simulation code and improved entropy computation.

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Probabilistic spin glass - Part I

Marton Trencseni - Sat 11 December 2021 • Tagged with entropy, physics, spin, glass

I run Monte Carlo simulations on probabilistic spin glasses, a simple mathematical model of magnetized matter with short range interactions. I use entropy to characterize the model's order-disorder transition.

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The physical Sackur-Tetrode entropy of an ideal gas

Marton Trencseni - Mon 29 November 2021 • Tagged with entropy, physics

I derive the Sackur-Tetrode equation for entropy of a monatomic ideal gas.

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Entropy of an ideal gas with coarse-graining

Marton Trencseni - Fri 19 November 2021 • Tagged with entropy, physics

I show the first steps of how to arrive at a definition of entropy for a monatomic ideal gas modeled as hard billiard balls.

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WeToddle retrospective

Marton Trencseni - Fri 29 October 2021 • Tagged with startups, cocoon, facebook

The idea behind WeToddle came from the Baby Fanclub group we have on Messenger, which has most of our family in it. It turns out some ex-Facebook people had a similar idea in 2019, raised $3M, spent a 2 years on it, and then gave up because it didn’t go anywhere (presumably).

WeToddle Android

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Entropy in Data Science

Marton Trencseni - Sun 24 October 2021 • Tagged with entropy

I discuss 4 uses of entropy in Data Science: (i) cross entropy as a loss function for training neural network classifiers (ii) entropy as a splitting criterion for building decision trees (iii) entropy for evaluating clustering algorithms (iv) entropy for understanding relationships in tabular data.

Information gain

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100 articles

Marton Trencseni - Mon 18 October 2021 • Tagged with meta

A review and introspect on the first 100 articles written on Bytepawn.

100

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Cross entropy, joint entropy, conditional entropy and relative entropy

Marton Trencseni - Sat 09 October 2021 • Tagged with entropy, cross-entropy, joint-entropy, conditional-entropy, relative-entropy, kullback–leibler-diverence

What's the difference between cross entropy, joint entropy, conditional entropy and relative entropy?

Information gain

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What's the entropy of a fair coin toss?

Marton Trencseni - Sat 25 September 2021 • Tagged with entropy, interviews, cross-entropy, physics

What's the entropy of a fair coin toss? What if the coin almost always returns Heads? My recruiter reports that very few candidates can answer these entropy related DS screening questions.

Entropy

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Five ways to reduce variance in A/B testing

Marton Trencseni - Sun 19 September 2021 • Tagged with ab-testing, variance, stratification, cuped

I use toy Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate 5 ways to reduce variance in A/B testing: increase sample size, move towards a more even split, reduce variance in the metric definition, stratification and CUPED.

Historic lift

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Correlations, seasonality, lift and CUPED

Marton Trencseni - Sun 05 September 2021 • Tagged with ab-testing, cuped

In this final blog post about CUPED, I will address some questions about CUPED, such as, is correlation between "before" and "after" the same as seasonality?

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A/A testing and false positives with CUPED

Marton Trencseni - Sun 15 August 2021 • Tagged with ab-testing, cuped

I use Monte Carlo simulations of A/A tests to demonstrate how Data Scientists can incorrectly skew lift and p-values if they pick-and-choose between reporting traditional and CUPED results after the experiment has concluded.

Historic lift

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