Introduction to Marketing Mix Modeling

Marton Trencseni - Sun 23 July 2023 • Tagged with mmm, marketing, mixed, model, lightweight_mmm, google, python

I describe the concept of Marketing Mix Modeling using Google's LightweightMMM library.

MMM attribution

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Leadership models V: The Hero's Journey

Marton Trencseni - Fri 23 June 2023 • Tagged with leadership, mental, models, first-principles

The Hero's Journey, or Monomyth, is a narrative pattern identified by scholar Joseph Campbell that appears across a wide range of cultures and eras, and is also a useful mental model in Leadership.

Peter principle

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Real-world experiments: 5 Lessons from Google, Bing, Netflix and Alibaba

Marton Trencseni - Sun 18 June 2023 • Tagged with ab-testing

I discuss five lessons from large-scale experiments conducted by Google, Bing, Netflix and Alibaba: Kohavi's 1 out of 3 rule, Google's 41 shades of blue, Bing's unexpected big win, Alibaba's personalization experiment and Netflix' movie image personalization.

Netflix

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Conditional Probabilities and Simpson's Paradox

Marton Trencseni - Sun 11 June 2023 • Tagged with probability, statistics, simpsons, paradox

I give examples of "unintuitive" conditional probabilities and discuss Simpson's paradox.

Simpson's paradox

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Testing GPT-4 spatial reasoning and comprehension

Marton Trencseni - Sun 21 May 2023 • Tagged with gpt, gpt-4

I run experiments to determine whether, or to what degree, GPT-4 has developed an comprehension of spatial relationships. I find that it it significantly better than GPT-3.

GPT-3

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Leadership models IV: the Pareto Principle, the Peter Principle, the Rumsfeld Matrix, Servant Leadership and Pygmalion Effect, and Goleman's Emotional Intelligence Model

Marton Trencseni - Fri 19 May 2023 • Tagged with leadership, mental, models, first-principles

In this post, I describe the Pareto Principle, the Peter Principle, the Rumsfeld Matrix, Servant Leadership and Pygmalion Effect, and finally Goleman's Emotional Intelligence Model.

Peter principle

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Leadership models III: First Principles Thinking

Marton Trencseni - Tue 16 May 2023 • Tagged with leadership, mental, models, first-principles

I describe Elon Musk's First Principles Thinking model through several examples: SpaceX, Warren Buffet's Berkshire, Google's organization design, Python's language design, Random Forests and Convolutional Neural Networks.

Elon Musk First Principles Thinking

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Leadership models II: Growth Mindset, Eisenhower Matrix, Tuckman Model, Cynefin Framework, SCARF Model

Marton Trencseni - Sun 14 May 2023 • Tagged with leadership, mental, models, growth-mindset, eisenhower-matrix, tuckman, cynefin, scarf

I describe the following mental models useful in leadership and self-management: the Growth Mindset, Eisenhower Matrix, Tuckman Model, Cynefin Framework, SCARF Model.

Trust equation

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Leadership models I: Iceberg Model, Six Thinking Hats, Trust Equation, Circle of influence, OODA Loop

Marton Trencseni - Fri 12 May 2023 • Tagged with leadership, mental, models, iceberg, thinking-hats, trust-euqation, ooda

I describe the following mental models useful in leadership and self-management: Iceberg Model, Six Thinking Hats, Trust Equation, Circle of Influence and OODA Loop.

Trust equation

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GPT News Poet: silly AI poems based on today's news

Marton Trencseni - Sun 07 May 2023 • Tagged with gpt, python, gnews, ai

I show how I used GNews and the OpenAI API to build GPT News Poet, a fun toy site showing silly AI poems based on today's news.

ROC curve

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Can ChatGPT write the C++20 async message queue codes from the previous posts?

Marton Trencseni - Sat 15 April 2023 • Tagged with cpp, async, message, queue, chatgpt

I try to get ChatGPT to write the codes in the previous posts. It's able to write the basic message queue skeleton, but it cannot implement more complicated features such as delivery semantics with caching; also, the code crashes. C++ programmers do not (yet) need to fear for their jobs.

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Writing a simple C++20 async message queue server - Part II

Marton Trencseni - Sat 08 April 2023 • Tagged with cpp, async, message, queue

I write a somewhat more complicated, but still relatively simple async message queue server in modern C++20.

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Writing a simple C++20 async message queue server - Part I

Marton Trencseni - Sun 02 April 2023 • Tagged with cpp, async, message, queue

I write a simple, bi-directional async message queue server in modern C++20.

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Can ChatGPT write the Python async message queue codes from the previous posts?

Marton Trencseni - Sun 05 March 2023 • Tagged with python, async, message, queue, chatgpt

I try to get ChatGPT to write the codes in the previous posts. It's able to write the basic message queue skeleton, but cannot implement more complicated features such as delivery semantics with caching.

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Writing a simple Python async message queue server - Part II

Marton Trencseni - Thu 02 March 2023 • Tagged with python, async, message, queue

I write a somewhat more complicated, but still relatively simple async message queue server in Python.

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Writing a simple Python async message queue server - Part I

Marton Trencseni - Mon 27 February 2023 • Tagged with python, async, message, queue

I write a simple, bi-directional async message queue server in Python.

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Lifelong purchases

Marton Trencseni - Sun 05 February 2023 • Tagged with lifelong, purchase, victorinox

What are some of my buy-it-for-life purchases?

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Crypto V: On NFTs

Marton Trencseni - Fri 27 January 2023 • Tagged with crypto, bitcoin, btc, ftx, ftt

I argue that virtual goods such as in-game skins make more sense in a centralized walled-garden approach, and NFTs tracked and traded on blockchains are legally problematic.

BTC transaction

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Crypto IV: On stock investing vs. crypto investing

Marton Trencseni - Sat 21 January 2023 • Tagged with crypto, bitcoin, btc, ftx, ftt

I argue that a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin has a weird property: the more you buy of it, the less valuable it becomes.

Elon Musk Twitter

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Crypto III: On perceivd crypto advantages such as anonymity and irreversibility

Marton Trencseni - Fri 20 January 2023 • Tagged with crypto, bitcoin, btc, ftx, ftt

I argue that anonymity, irreversibility and decentralization, while interesting technical features that implemented in a fascinating way using cryptographic primites, are not practical for real-world use.

BTC transaction

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