Conditional Probabilities and Simpson's Paradox
Marton Trencseni - Sun 11 June 2023 • Tagged with probability, statistics, simpsons, paradox
I give examples of "unintuitive" conditional probabilities and discuss Simpson's paradox.
Fair coin from biased coin
Marton Trencseni - Tue 22 March 2022 • Tagged with probability, statistics
Given a biased coin, construct a fair coin.
The german tank problem in World War II
Marton Trencseni - Sat 12 March 2022 • Tagged with statistics, war
I run Monte Carlo simulations to show the frequntist solution to the German tank problem. 
Predicting party affiliation of US politicians using fasttext
Marton Trencseni - Sun 20 June 2021 • Tagged with statistics, trump, politics, fasttext, twitter
I train a fasttext classifier on 1.2M data points to predict US politicians' party affiliations from their twitter messages. 
Random digits and Benford's law
Marton Trencseni - Sat 29 May 2021 • Tagged with statistics
The post explores the distribution of digits of random and non-random numbers from receipts, verifying Benford's law of first digit distribution.
Beyond the Central Limit Theorem
Marton Trencseni - Thu 06 February 2020 • Tagged with data, ab testing, statistics
In the previous post, I talked about the importance of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to A/B testing. Here we will explore cases when we cannot rely on the CLT to hold.
A/B testing and the Central Limit Theorem
Marton Trencseni - Wed 05 February 2020 • Tagged with data, ab testing, statistics
When working with hypothesis testing, the desciptions of the statistical method often has normality assumptions. For example, the Wikipedia page for the z-test starts like this: "A Z-test is any statistical test for which the distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis can be approximated by a normal distribution". What does this mean? How do I know it’s a valid assumption for my data?
Beat the averages
Marton Trencseni - Sat 07 July 2018 • Tagged with statistics, data
When working with averages, we have to be careful. There are pitfalls lurking to pollute our statistics and results reported.
Beautiful A/B testing
Marton Trencseni - Sun 05 June 2016 • Tagged with ab-testing, strata, statistics, data
I gave this talk at the O’Reilly Strata Conference London in 2016 June, mostly based on what I learned at Prezi from 2012-2016.